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JANUARY 31,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

WHAT BLUE WAVE? – FROM BREITBART:  A Monmouth University poll released Wednesday shows Democrats with only a “negligible edge” over Republicans for November’s Congressional elections.  The poll, conducted over three days almost entirely before President Donald Trump’s well-received State of the Union Address, shows 47 percent of respondents saying they would vote for a generic congressional Democrat compared to 45 percent for a generic Republican, well within the poll’s 3.5 percent margin of error. This figure is a massive shift from earlier polls showing double digit Democratic leads and fueling pundits’ talk of a “blue wave” that could sweep Republicans from power.  The same polling agency, the Monmouth University Polling Institute (MUPI), found a 15 point generic Democratic advantage using the same question only last month.  Americans are starting to realize that Trump and the Republicans are delivering real results.  The Dem strategy is simply to oppose, to show contempt for cherished institutions, and to glorify illegal immigrants.  The Dems will get the journalist vote, the GOP should do well among we deplorables.

WE DOG LOVERS ARE SMILING – FROM AP:   SAUGATUCK, Mich. (AP) – Michael Ryder had been approved for $360 every week in Michigan unemployment benefits — until the state learned he’d been dogging it at the Detroit-area restaurant chain where he supposedly worked.  Ryder is a German Shepherd owned by attorney Michael Haddock on the other side of the state in Saugatuck.  WZZM-TV reports that Haddock received a benefits letter addressed to “Michael Ryder” from Michigan’s Unemployment Insurance Agency. The station says Haddock contacted the agency about the letter.  The agency says its computer system sent the letter, but the claim later was flagged as suspicious and denied.  Investigations administrator Tim Kolar wrote in a tongue-in-cheek email that he knows “first-hand it is rare for ‘man’s best friend’ to contribute financially to the household and that will continue in this instance.”  I say, give the dog the benefits.  Dogs deserve a break.  Look at all the things they do for us, without charge.  Fight this unfair denial!

A MAJOR LOSS – FROM FOX:  South Carolina Republican Trey Gowdy, a key member of the House Intelligence and Oversight committees, said Wednesday he will leave Congress at the end of this term. The four-term congressman said he does not intend to seek another elected office.  Gowdy released a statement on his decision, which stated in part:  "Words cannot adequately express my gratitude to the people of South Carolina for the privilege of representing them in the House of Representatives. The State of South Carolina has an incredible depth and breadth of assets including numerous women and men capable of representing us. I will always be grateful for the opportunity to serve in the People's House and—prior to Congress—to advocate on behalf of justice in our court systems.  A very good man and a superb lawyer.  This is a major loss to the country.

January 31, 2018       Permalink

BEATING EXPECTATIONS AGAIN – AT 2:53 P.M. ET:   Another sign of a roaring economy.  From CNBC: 

The new year got off to a strong start for job creation, with businesses adding 234,000 in January, according to a report Wednesday from ADP and Moody's Analytics.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had been looking for private payrolls to grow by 185,000.
Job creation was concentrated largely in service-related industries, which contributed 212,000 to the total.

Within that sector some of the better-paying industries showed solid gains: Trade, transportation and utilities led with 51,000, education and health services added 47,000 and professional and businesses services contributed 46,000. Leisure and hospitality services also grew by 46,000.

On the goods-producing side, manufacturing added 12,000 jobs while construction saw 9,000 new hires despite the traditionally slow month for the industry.

COMMENT:  The Republican argument for November should be a warning to voters that all this could end if the Democrats regain control of either house of Congress.

Already we see efforts by the political left in some states to negate the corporate tax cut by raising taxes on local corporations to help fill state treasuries.  Those targeted companies may then have to lay off workers, rather than hire them.  The Dems don't seem to have a problem with that.

January 31, 2018       Permalink

AMERICANS REJECTING ANTI-TRUMP EXCESS – AT 11:47 A.M. ET:  The left has carried it much too far, and Americans are on to the game.  From Daily Mail: 

The stats don't lie.

Within minutes of President Donald Trump's first State of the Union speech, CBS News revealed their YouGov poll approval ratings on it.

Unsurprisingly, 97% of Republican speech watchers liked it.

More surprisingly, 72% of Independents liked it.

Staggeringly, 43% of Democrats liked it.

Overall, CBS reported that 75% of Americans approved of the speech.

And...

Contrast this reaction with the instant and so tediously predictable blind rage spewed by the world's liberal celebrities on social media before, during and after the address.

From my own unofficial poll – i.e. my own eyes on Twitter – I'd say 99% of them were so furious at the speech they could barely think straight.

'I was told darkness could not exist in the light,' tweeted Sarah Silverman. 'But here it is, for everyone to not see.'

And...

On and on it went, with these stars and many more assuming America agreed with them.

But it turned out the vast majority of Americans DIDN'T agree with them, which suggests they're no longer listening to what celebrities say about politics or Donald Trump.

For more evidence of this, look at Sunday night's Grammys that turned into a marathon political rally of epically dreary proportions.

Ratings duly plunged 24% to an all-time low.

COMMENT:  I'm getting the sense that more and more Americans don't care what "journalists" think either.  You can predict almost every word. 

Like Reagan, Trump is getting through, over the heads of the liberal operatives.

January 31, 2018       Permalink

AND IN THE REAL AMERICA – AT 11:17 A.M. ET:   The great Salena Zito, one of the few reporters who detected, before the election, the wave that elected Trump, speaks with actual, real-live citizens.  Imagine, these people never studied Social Justice at an Ivy League school.  How can they face themselves?  They are, however, highly educated.  From the New York Post: 

VENETIA, PA. — Tony and Michelle Ripepi always make sure their children are civically engaged, from following local and national elections to watching big decisions, speeches and moments coming from the White House.

“We make it a point to discuss current events so that they are aware of what is going on in the world, so for us watching the State of the Union Address given by any president is a family affair,” Michelle said.

Tuesday evening was no different as the couple sat in their Pennsylvania living room with their children Lillie, Natalie, Tony and John.

One constant theme throughout President Trump’s speech, in particular for the kids, was the decision by Democrats not to stand and applaud, especially on issues like border security or historic low unemployment rates or some of the more emotional personal stories the president highlighted.

“I just wonder if they thought this through past their politics, on many of these things all of America is applauding while they are sitting,” said 14-year-old Natalie.

The whole internet is discussing that.  It's a disaster for the crazy Dems.

Lillie, 15, a freshman at Peters Township HS, was particularly interested in the president’s focus on immigration, in particular DACA.

“I do believe that the DACA kids should be allowed to stay here,” said Lillie, who just completed a school paper on DACA. “It is the only home they have known, but I also think they should they should go through the legal process to become citizens.”
On the wall, she was adamant, “Build it.”

“I was happy with what he said about the criteria that Dreamers had to meet to become citizens, like education, good morals,” she said.

Both Tony, 54, and Michelle, 41, voted for Trump is 2016. Tony is a grandson of immigrants and a highly regarded chief of surgery at a suburban Pittsburgh hospital. Michelle went to Carnegie Mellon University, is a breast cancer survivor and director of operations at the Ripepi home, driving the kids to tennis, piano, and hockey games and practices while also helping with her husband’s practice.
They are the upper-middle class suburban voters who live in a blue-collar upper-middle-class exurb whose vote most pollsters missed in their calculations of who would support Trump in 2016.

Tony, who remains skeptical the president will become part of the swamp on DACA, was thrilled when Trump said “all Americans are Dreamers.”

“What a line, now that is what I am talking about,” he said.

COMMENT:  Read the whole thing.  Slowly, Trump is rising in the polls, despite a sickeningly hostile press and his own blunders.  And the job is getting done.  Democratic behavior last night was the equivalent of Trump's foolish tweets.  It got them nowhere.

January 31,  2018     Permalink 

JANUARY 30,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

THE STATE OF THE UNION – Perfectly good speech, too long, reasonably well delivered.  Nothing surprising, except the refusal of Democrats to applaud for lines everyone should applaud, like the one about the low unemployment rate among minorities.  They seem determined to act like losers, and to yield entirely to the most extreme part of their already extreme base. 

LEFTIES GRIPE – FROM BREITBART:  Some left-wing activists are not thrilled that Democrats selected Rep. Joe Kennedy (D-MA)—a privileged “white man”— to give the response to President Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech on Tuesday evening, arguing that it will be tougher for Democrats to attack Trump as a white guy who inherited his wealth with another white liberal who inherited his fortune. They are also slamming Democrats for selecting someone who is not progressive enough.   The left-wing media outlet Splinter blasted Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) for believing that “a white man from a storied political dynasty who is, by all accounts, not one of Capitol Hill’s pioneering forces—will ‘do an excellent job in making clear that Democrats are laser-focused on enacting policies to benefit middle class Americans, not special interests or the wealthiest."'  The left will destroy the Democratic Party.  It tried and failed in the 1930s.

TRUMP GIVES A SIGN – FROM DAILY CALLER:  President Trump will “100 percent” release the controversial FISA memo, according to comments heard directly after the State of the Union.
The President was leaving the House Chamber when reporters heard Rep. Jeff Duncan call out to Trump to ask him to release the House Intelligence Committee’s FISA memo.  The memo was compiled by Republicans and allegedly reveals the FBI’s mishandling of federal wiretaps in the Obama administration. The House Intelligence Committee voted this week to make the memo public and now the White House must approve the move.  Trump stopped and turned to Duncan and said “Oh yeah, don’t worry, 100 percent.”  I'm guessing that will happen soon, and will create an uproar. 

January 30, 2018       Permalink

NOW THIS IS SERIOUS – AT 12:54 P.M. ET:   The federal government has now investigated the recent "false" alert in Hawaii.  The conclusion is startling, and disturbing.  From Fox: 

The Hawaii employee who issued a ballistic missile alert to residents — causing mass panic for nearly 40 minutes earlier this month — intentionally sent the message thinking the island was being attacked, the FCC said Tuesday in a stunning reversal after officials had insisted the alert was the result of a mistaken keystroke.

In a written statement, the employee, who was not identified, said he believed there was a real emergency on Jan. 13 after hearing a recording that stated “THIS IS NOT A DRILL.” But the employee did not hear the first half of the message that stated “EXERCISE, EXERCISE, EXERCISE,” the FCC said in its preliminary report Tuesday. Though the recording also ended with the "EXERCISE" message, the officer did not hear it.

“While other warning officers understand that this is a drill, the warning officer at the alert origination terminal claimed to believe, in a written statement provided to HI-EMA [Emergency Management Agency] that this was a real emergency, not a drill,” the FCC said.

The employee followed emergency protocol and transmitted the “live incoming ballistic missile alert to the State of Hawaii,” selecting “yes” when reaching a page asking: “Are you sure that you want to send this Alert?”

The FCC said the incident was caused by a "miscommunication" during a shift change between the overnight and day crews. Three other officers reported hearing the "exercise" portion of the message.  

COMMENT:  That is chilling.  Clearly, retraining is required.  But also required is a top-to-bottom review of all procedures, and the operation of all equipment.  While it's highly unlikely that someone could start a war with a false alert, "highly unlikely" is too low a standard when dealing with nuclear weapons.

Post-accident reports by the National Transportation Safety Board have resulted in major improvements to air safety.  We expect the same kind of response and thoroughness on this occasion.

January 30, 2018       Permalink

THE PRESIDENTIAL STANDING – AT 11:40 A.M. ET:  Tonight the president delivers the annual State of the Union message.  I guess I'll have to watch, as you'll expect me too, but I'd rather be watching a good story on Investigation Discovery. 

A few words about the State of the Union message:  No one actually cares.  News about the speech will probably disappear in a few days.  The news networks build up the SOTU because they'll be broadcasting it live, and the buildup is part of the show.  But few such presidential speeches are memorable.  Indeed, there was a time when the president simply sent the written speech up to Congress without actually delivering it.  We should go back to those days.

I do look forward to possible disruptions in the House gallery, where visitors sit.  Tickets are given out by members of Congress, and some mischievous members, probably most or all from the California delegation, manage to give tickets to certifiable nutjobs, just so we can have a moment of disruption.  We will then never be told, of course, who gave tickets to whom. 

Gallup is publishing, before the speech, a survey of where the president stands in the states.  We should note that Gallup generally has underpolled Mr. Trump, so I'm assuming the president's actual numbers are a bit higher.  But the comparison among states is interesting.  From Gallup:

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- President Donald Trump's job approval rating averaged 38% throughout the U.S. in 2017, but at the state level it ranged from a high of 61% in West Virginia to a low of 26% in Vermont.

Trump averaged 50% or higher approval in 12 states in total, primarily in the states where he received the most votes in the 2016 election. In addition to West Virginia, the states where at least half the respondents approved of Trump included several western states (Wyoming, Idaho, Montana and Alaska), several southern states (Oklahoma, Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas) and two Midwestern states (North and South Dakota).

Trump earned between 40% and 49% approval -- above his national average -- in 20 states. These were predominantly in the Midwest and South, and included several of the key rustbelt states that were critical to his 2016 victory: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

Fewer than 40% of respondents approved of Trump in the remaining 18 states, 14 of which are located in the East and West -- his worst performing regions in the election. In addition to Vermont, his ratings were particularly low -- below 30% -- in Massachusetts (27%), California (29%) and Hawaii (29%). Maryland, New York, Connecticut and Rhode Island round out the states where fewer than one-third of the respondents approved.

These results are based on 171,469 Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted nationally throughout 2017. Gallup interviewed more than 1,000 respondents in 39 states in 2017, and no fewer than 471 in any other state. Each state's sample is weighted to match U.S. Census Bureau demographic parameters for that state's adult population.

COMMENT:  Mr. Trump currently stands at 43% approval in the Rasmussen tracker, which has tended to be pretty accurate.  Please recall that on election day, 2016, he was well behind in the traditional polls.  He is not doing badly at all – Obama spent a good chunk of his presidency in the mid-forties – and Mr. Trump's strong economy will help him in 2018.

January 30,  2018     Permalink

THE REAL NEWS – AT 10:37 A.M. ET:  The story broke this morning, and can have major consequences for the country in the months and years ahead.  From Bloomberg: 

It’s no secret Jeff Bezos has been looking to crack health care. But no one expected him to pull in Warren Buffett and Jamie Dimon, too.

News Tuesday that Bezos’s Amazon.com Inc., Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., led by Dimon, plan to join forces to change how health care is provided to their combined 1 million U.S. employees sent shock waves through the health-care industry.

The plan, while in early stages and focused solely on the three giants’ staff for now, seems almost certain to set its sights on disrupting the broader industry. It’s the first big move by Amazon in the sector after months of speculation that the internet behemoth might make an entry. The Amazon-Berkshire-JPMorgan collaboration will likely pressure profits for middlemen in the health-care supply chain.

Details were scant in a short joint statement on Tuesday. The three companies said they plan to set up a new independent company “that is free from profit-making incentives and constraints.”

COMMENT:  Fascinating.  Will it be a positive thing?  Negative?  Neutral?  Don't know.  But the sheer power of the participants tells us it will be important.

Maybe this combo will come up with needed ideas in an area stale with rhetoric.  We should welcome the development.  Only in a free society can something like this happen.  We hope the country will be richer for it.

January 30,  2018     Permalink